By all accounts, Cuba is enduring the worst financial second within the 67-year historical past of its communist revolution.
Whereas the island nation has endured periodic episodes of mass migration, meals shortages and social unrest in many years previous, by no means earlier than have Cubans skilled such a wholesale collapse of the social security internet that the nation’s leaders — beginning with Fidel Castro — as soon as prided themselves on.
“I, who was born there, I, who lives there, and I’ll let you know: It’s by no means been as dangerous as it’s now, as a result of many elements have come collectively,” mentioned Omar Everleny Pérez, 64, an economist in Havana.
As Trump administration officers congratulate themselves on a triumphant navy victory in Venezuela, during which President Nicolas Maduro was seized and the USA claimed management over the South American nation, eyes have now turned to Cuba, which loved a heat relationship with the jailed president and which relied on the oil he despatched.
Of Cuba, “It’s happening for the rely,” Mr. Trump mentioned Sunday, dismissing the necessity for navy motion there, as a result of he mentioned the federal government was more likely to collapse by itself.
Odalis Reyes can see proof of Cuba’s decay together with her personal two eyes.
From the window in her cramped sitting room, Ms. Reyes, a seamstress in Previous Havana, appears out at a relic of the nation’s out of date previous, the rusting hulk of an electrical energy station that when offered electrical energy to her poor neighborhood on the sting of the favored vacationer district of Cuba’s capital.
Now it serves as a reminder of the fixed blackouts.
“Sure, many hours with out electrical energy, many, many — 14, 15 hours,” Ms. Reyes, 56, mentioned. “Oh, that terrifies you, it terrifies you, as a result of meals — which that is the toughest factor — you’re afraid it’ll spoil.”
“We don’t even understand how we’re going to get by anymore,” she added. “We’re like human robots, humanoids.”
In recent times, Cubans complained as a result of the month-to-month allotments of rice, beans and different meals staples that they acquired from authorities ration playing cards lasted solely 10 days. Now the playing cards are just about nugatory as a result of meals is never out there on the authorities ration shops.
To purchase gasoline, folks have to make use of an app to join an appointment — a minimum of three weeks upfront. One resident of Havana, the capital, mentioned he joined the queue three months in the past, and is now No. 5,052 in line.
The dearth of gasoline has led to sporadic trash pickup, which has led to outbreaks of mosquito-born diseases like dengue and chikungunya. Medicines are practically inconceivable to seek out with out family overseas to ship them.
The blackouts have exacerbated an already bleak state of affairs, notably in provinces exterior the capital, which may go 20 hours a day with out energy.
It’s darkish, persons are sick, and so they don’t have drugs, mentioned Mr. Pérez, the economist.
The financial state of affairs in Cuba has all the time been troublesome. It was notably horrible throughout an period within the mid-Nineteen Nineties often called the “particular interval,” which got here after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which had saved Cuba afloat.
The Cuban authorities has constantly blamed its financial travails on a decades-long U.S. commerce embargo that it claims places a chokehold on its means to do enterprise on the planet market and earn much-needed money. Financial sanctions by Republican administrations, which have excluded meals and drugs, have made it even tougher, authorities officers say.
“Correcting distortions and reviving the financial system just isn’t a slogan,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel mentioned in a speech final month. “It’s a concrete battle for stability in on a regular basis life, in order that wages are ample, so that there’s meals on the desk, in order that blackouts finish, in order that transportation is revived, in order that colleges, hospitals and fundamental companies operate with the standard we deserve.”
On the finish of the third quarter final yr, the nation’s gross home product had fallen by greater than 4 p.c, the president mentioned, inflation was skyrocketing, and deliveries of rationed meals weren’t being met.
Mr. Díaz-Canel reiterated the federal government’s lengthy working objectives: to make meals manufacturing a high precedence and work to make state-owned companies extra environment friendly.
Specialists say that it stays unclear how huge an impact the autumn of Mr. Maduro can have on Cuba, because the Trump administration exerts extra management over Venezuela’s state oil trade. When Hugo Chávez was president, he saved Cuba afloat with some 90,000 barrels of oil each day. Within the final quarter of 2025, Cuba acquired simply 35,000.
The ensuing energy outages have harm industries like nickel manufacturing, as a result of the factories are off when there’s no energy.
One other essential trade, tourism, has additionally suffered lately. Earlier than the Covid pandemic, 4 million folks a yr used to go to Cuba; that quantity has struggled to get again to 2 million, economists mentioned.
Amid the struggles, some have been calling for extra personal enterprise.
Emilio Interián Rodríguez, a Cuban lawmaker who’s president of an agricultural cooperative, delivered a blistering speech urging agricultural overhauls and extra personal enterprise. He made the declaration on the ground of the Nationwide Meeting — the place pro-government rhetoric is the norm. Non-public enterprise house owners, he mentioned, have been doing a greater job than state corporations.
“Due to micro, small and medium enterprises, at this time we’ve got extra issues, and because of micro, small, and medium enterprises at this time we’re attaining leads to many issues that we had by no means achieved earlier than,” he mentioned.
Specialists agree that whereas U.S. insurance policies have harm Cuba, poor planning and mismanagement are additionally accountable for the nation’s financial troubles. Efforts to permit personal companies to function have faltered due to onerous rules.
The personal enterprises, often called MiPyMEs, have been legalized in 2021 and have been a lifeline in Cuba, Mr. Pérez and different residents mentioned.
Some personal shops resemble grocery store chains in the USA, with every thing from Goya manufacturers to Philadelphia cream cheese.
However costs on the personal shops are exorbitant, notably for individuals who earn salaries within the native forex. A typical month-to-month pension is 3,000 pesos, lower than $7, whereas a carton of 30 eggs prices 3,600 pesos —$8.
“There’s meals, and loads of it, however the costs are unimaginable,” Mr. Pérez mentioned. “No one with a wage, not even a physician, can hardly purchase in these shops.”
A few third of Cubans obtain financial assist from abroad, and a few earn {dollars} within the personal sector. However a couple of third, notably pensioners, reside in poverty, Mr. Pérez mentioned.
Tough residing circumstances helped spur spontaneous mass protests in 2021, however a harsh authorities crackdown quashed the demonstrations.
Cuba’s monetary collapse has fueled a unprecedented exodus — about 2.75 million Cubans have left the nation since 2020, based on Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban demographer. Whereas the official inhabitants is about 9.7 million folks, Mr. Albizu-Campos mentioned 8.25 million can be extra correct.
Some folks have taken to cooking with firewood. The nation is producing 25 p.c much less energy than it did in 2019, mentioned Ricardo Torres, a Cuban economist who’s at present a fellow at American College.
Cuba’s financial system has declined three years in a row, he mentioned.
“The home financial system,” Mr. Torres mentioned, “is in a free fall.”
Yoan Nazabal, 32, a bartender and taxi driver in Havana, mentioned his spouse had a cesarean part six months in the past, and was surprised to seek out out what they have been anticipated to carry to the hospital.
“We needed to carry our personal catheter to the hospital!” he mentioned. “Everybody talks about how nice our medical system is, and the way it’s free — and it has been, traditionally. Our medical doctors are first-class. However they don’t have any sources with which to do their job.”
Hannah Berkeley Cohen contributed reporting from Miami.
